What Tuscaloosa Just Did

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   The City of Tuscaloosa just pulled off something brilliant that every city should know about in states that aren’t already protecting their people with Shelter In Place orders. Alabama is a Dillon’s Rule state as established in the 1901 state constitution. This means that counties and cities are limited to powers expressly granted them by the Legislature. Shelter In Place orders are not one of those powers. Here’s Mayor Walt Maddox’s more detailed explanation.

   So did the city idly sit by waiting for the Governor to do the right thing? Not a chance. The Mayor was early in his first term when the catastrophic 2011 tornado hit, and so he and his team quickly learned how to get stuff done in a disaster. Last night, they pulled it off again.

   One of the powers expressly granted by the Legislature to cities is the ability to set a curfew. So the city established a 24-hour curfew beginning this weekend with all the conditions of a Shelter-In-Place order. Genius move! What a hack of the system! But in full respect of the rule of law, which is so very important to maintain in a crisis.

   If you’re in a state where the cities are similarly limited but your city or town wants to protect its people, please share this with them. Or just share broadly on social media and the cities that need the Tuscaloosa Hack will find it. As they say in these parts, Roll Tide!!

   ~Steve Mouzon

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Hope for Italy?

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   I was beginning to have hope for Italy. Saturday through Tuesday they had about 3,500 new Coronavirus cases each day, which was a promising sign that their lockdown might be finally bearing fruit. But Wednesday it jumped off that plateau to 4,207 new cases, Thursday it was at 5,322,  and yesterday (Friday) it was 5,986. Granted, from the time they started the lockdown you should allow 5-12 days (the range I’ve seen) for people already infected to start showing symptoms. In other words, there would have been a bunch of cases baked in. The full lockdown began March 9, which was 12 days ago. So the real key is what happens over the next few days. If the lockdown has the intended effect, today should be the last day at which the baked-in infections should manifest, and the plateau really should begin to form tomorrow. But it’ll be another week before you can authoritatively say that the exponent has dropped below 1, and the curve definitely turns downward. There are several problems with lockdowns comparable to Italy’s in the US: 

The Denier Problem

   There is a segment of the US population that was quite large just a couple weeks ago that deny the novel coronavirus is much different from the flu. Some even say it’s just the common cold. Here’s what the World Health Organization says: Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a new strain that was discovered in 2019 and has not been previously identified in humans. Conflating COVID-19 with the common cold is akin to conflating a tiger and a house cat by saying “they’re both cats.” True. But one can kill you. I hope and believe that this segment is dropping in number as more people are turning to the stern reality of the situation. But those who are still Deniers to some degree are less likely to heed the warnings and may become carriers.

The Denouncer Problem

   There is a counter-segment of the US population who oppose the Deniers and denounce them vigorously, early, and often. The debates that rage in person and online suck massive energies away from doing things that actually give us a better chance of flattening the curve. This wasted time and energy is almost as damaging as the denials. If you’re a Denouncer and the facts emerging now highlight how wrong your opponents have been, the worst thing you could do is rub their noses in it because doing so prolongs their harmful denials. So just shut up, already! We need all hands on deck; both Deniers and Denouncers should become Doers. It is especially unfortunate that this pandemic is occurring in an election year in the US. But put that aside for now; if we flatten the curve, you can pick the campaign back up later in the year.

The Young Don't-Care Problem

   The #BoomerRemover hastag that sprang up a few days ago highlights the fact that there is a segment of younger people in the US who believe “we  should just party on and let the old folks die.” Here’s one example:

   Wednesday morning I posted this on Facebook: Why the Young Should Care - The news has been filled with stories of revelry over the weekend by those who regard #COVID19 as the #BoomerRemover and think it won’t hurt them. If you’re one of them, consider this: The more irresponsible your behavior, the more draconian the authorities will be in their responses. And the combination of wider spread & tougher response will do more damage to the economy. So in a worst-case world with few Boomers left, it’ll be you guys left to deal with wreckages of world economies for a long time to come. The bottom line is this: we’re all in this together. Let’s all be responsible.

   To which a young guy from Colorado who I don’t know commented: Did you know our planet is dieing because of your generations inability to change so here food for thought if you want someone to care about your future you have to do the same .. but you didnt so we wont either an eye for an eye makes the world go round thats the truth of life.

The Old Don't-Care Problem

   There’s an even more inexplicable subsegment of the “don’t care” group, and that’s the older people who are gravitating to bars and restaurants operating in defiance of the closing orders. I really don’t understand why those of an age known to be more likely to die from this stuff knowingly put themselves at risk like this. I haven’t spoken to anyone in this segment to find out why they’re behaving this way, but can only speculate that it has something to do with fierce independence and the thought that “nobody’s gonna tell me what to do.” Or maybe they’re thinking “we’re gonna die anyway; might as well live it up so long as we’re alive.”

   Both Don’t-Care sub-segments present big problems because of the virulence of the exponential spread of this disease. Little numbers are becoming big numbers very quickly with this thing. Look at how much of the history of AIDS was driven by that one Canadian flight attendant. And then imagine hundreds of thousands or maybe even a few million Don’t-Care carriers of COVID-19. Do I think this will run on until it kills us all someday? Emphatically no. There are a number of dampening factors that will kick in at some point, even though there are indicators that getting it once doesn’t confer longterm immunity. So someone could keep getting it until it weakens and kills them. But humanity will survive… the real question is what will society look like on the other side?

The Delay Problem

   But back to Italy. Let’s say that the Italian lockdown doesn’t produce results beginning tomorrow. Nations, states, and cities now considering lockdowns as robust as Italy’s could be swayed to say “if the lockdown doesn’t do the job in Italy, why do it here?” We’ve all seen the Italians singing, but we’ve also seen stories of the hardships of a real lockdown. This is a very real danger.

   It’s likely the Italian lockdown eventually will succeed, let’s say in another two weeks. We don’t know this virus very well yet, and it may not play according to our playbook. If people see a failure to plateau beginning tomorrow and steer away from more robust measures, they’re not only delaying starting them for two weeks (or however long it takes) but before that even happens, they have to start up the conversation again. Like an ocean tanker, you can’t turn this stuff on a dime. So let’s say the conversation restarts in two weeks and the measures that could be taken now are taken in three weeks. Three weeks ago yesterday, the global death toll outside of China was 107. Yesterday that number was 8,132. Seventy-six times larger! 282 have died so far in the US from COVID-19. 282 x 76 = 21,432 people dead. See how quickly this blows up?

   So Italy really is key. Everyone should watch closely what happens there beginning tomorrow. Will the plateau start to form? America should certainly hope so, in order that we make the best choices. And all other affected nations that are wavering as well.

   ~Steve Mouzon

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Pandemic Post - Masks

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<This later turned out to be true. The authorities were lying to us about the effectiveness of masks to keep non-medical people from making a run on them. I’m fine with the medical people having priority; it spurs creativity in the rest of us, like Christal (below)! ~Steve>

   Everyone says masks are ineffective at stopping the spread of COVID-19. But they also say the main means of spread is tiny virus-laden droplets when someone sneezes, coughs, or speaks. And then someone touches a surface the droplets landed on. The main point of entry mouth or nose, but sometimes the eyes. People have long said that the point of a mask is to remind you not to touch your face. Why doesn’t that work with COVID19?

   ~Steve Mouzon

Laura Hamilton The gist of this is that any mask, even a homemade mask, will provide better protection than no mask. You are being told not to wear masks because of hoarding and scarcity issues, and that's the only reason. Scarf tied around your face, dust mask, old surgical mask, particle mask leftover from wildfires, they are all better than nothing. 

This study also indicates that masks in general do a better job of protecting you from others than they do at protecting others from you. Mostly because when you exhale, the force of the air coming out can break your mask seal. Still, it's better to wear a mask than not. 

If you have to go out, wear a mask. If you don't have one, make one.


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Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory…

Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population

Steve Mouzon Wow thanks Laura Hamilton! Good stuff.

Steven Schloeder I don’t see how wearing a mask cannot be better than not wearing a mask.

Michael Stayman This is an important time to listen to authority and heed the warnings, but this is why people don't trust the government. They speak out of both sides of their mouth.

Nancy Bruning Michael Stayman or they speak prematurely when they don’t have sufficient science.

Brian Vinson I understand that wearing a mask actually causes you to touch your face more often. You're not used to wearing one, and you tend to adjust it repeatedly. Yeah it might prevent you from spreading your germs, but it seems you're more likely to pick up others.

Andrew Laska Brian Vinson while others say it makes you conscious of your face and therefore not touch it.

Tom Richerson Masks work- but mostly to stop the spread from people who already have it to those who don't. It doesn't work so much to prevent one from getting it because it can still come through your eyes, ears, nose and even through the sides of the mask.

Laura Hamilton It actually works the opposite way according to the studies. Better at protecting you from others than protecting them from you. This is why we all need to be wearing masks.

Becky Tiffany There is significant discrepancy between American and Asian experts on this. It's more than cultural. Also prior to this many publications noted that masks protected individuals from viruses when worn correctly.

David Moye Masks make contagious people less contagious

Veronika Eagleson It's all about the hoarding and the fact that medical personnel need them. We have a big stack of old work masks for drywall etc and are not afraid to use them.

Pamela Asher I would love to be able to get masks, all out!

Christal Deeter Hudson Pamela Asher ... make one out of an old bra... that’s what I’m doing... lol
cut the bra in half... cut off straps & back...cut straps into skinny strips... sew strips for the ears onto the single bra cup.

<Now thats what I mean by creative thanks, Christal! Wanda is making our masks now! ~Steve>

Norma Whitehead Most people wear them wrong and studies show that the average person winds up touching their face more often when wearing one than when they aren't wearing one. So they do the opposite of what is intended to happen

Chris Kochtitzky Surgical masks are designed to keep the doctors and other healthcare professionals from infecting patients. They are open to incoming airflow on the sides. They also often cause you to touch your face more rather than less. Only n95 masks professionally fitted for each person’s face can prevent others from infecting the wearer.

Megan Marie They absolutely do protect the wearer . That’s the reason for the PPE taught in the very first few nursing classes in college . People not wearing them correctly can provide false security and they need to be paired with common sense and remember not to touch surfaces and then your face, etc. The shortage is the reason the govt is telling us not to wear them in my opinion. Also they have to go for “herd mentality” and tailor their advice for the largest survival %. They are advising what will save the highest % of people, not what is best for each individual.

Kitty Klitzke I read that the masks go on the sick people. Not so great at protecting those who don’t have it.

John Czarnecki clear plastic cones keep Fido from scratching. ;- }

Rick Geller There’s a shortage of masks for medical workers.

Kira Gould Yes: That, I thought, was the main reason not to have all sorts of random healthy people using them up (to shop) ... so that health workers and first responders have the supply that they need.

Sandy Sorlien Breathing into a scarf or mask all the time will build up moisture. Keep a lookout for fungal infections on chin etc., air it out frequently (which means you are touching your face a lot) Seriously. The mask is more for people who are sneezing and coughing, to protect others.

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Pandemic Post - Stepping Back?

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<Thankfully, this sentiment didn’t last. ~Steve>

   I have not in a long time been closer than today to saying "I'll just leave you with it." Maybe I should just stay off Twitter. But in any case, I'm not seeing a lot of hope that most people will get out of their silos and do the right thing. So I'm wondering if now might be the time to just step back from debates and such, because everyone seems so stuck in their silos that they can't seem to see beyond them. If I can help with something, let me know. If not, I'll stick with the places where I can do some good. Be well, everyone!

   ~Steve Mouzon

Tracy Davis Heisler A lot depends on our indivdual networks, likes, and follows. I've been pleasantly surprised by how many people in my extended network are taking this seriously, following a path of caution, and more concerned about the common good than political posturing. I wish this could be the case for everyone.

Nicole Williams the next two weeks will be rough I think. Its going to either change or soften people or harden them, perhaps both.

Steve Mouzon FWIW, part of the frustration was about an offline architecture discussion. Let’s just leave it at that. Depressing to think about. Good folks ruined by ideology.

Kaid Benfield Learn to let argumentative others have the last word and move on. Works for me.

Steve Mouzon Kaid you're one of the wisest people I know!

Steven Semes This past year has been especially eye-opening, seeing how folks I thought serious and thoughtful descended into ideology or simple bigotry. I don't say that in self-righteousness and have had to admit that I was wrong about some things. Humility is a useful, if rare, attribute.

David Garner I have always been a "think outside the box" person. Now I'm a "think outside the roll of TP" person." Seriously Steve, I like your innovation and contributions to urban living and imo it's living with more freedom.

Theresa Tammy Ryan As long as you two do what you do, that’s what matters. You inspire people, very much.

Peter Annand Have you noticed the use of "conversation" redefined as "keep on talking until you give up and accept my shit as truth"


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Pandemic Post - Testing

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   There is a lot of backward thinking on testing. Many are saying that you should only be tested if you’re having clear symptoms and/or in a high-risk group. But the most dangerous people are those who are asymptomatic, or who just think they might have a cold or allergies. Because it is these people who can spread it to many more.

  ~Steve Mouzon

C Fenno Hoffman That's why isolation is sooooo important in these first few weeks

Brandon Neary Even the best diagnostic tests in the world will have a small percentage of false positive results. Symptomatic patients with travel and or contact history will have a much higher pre-test probability than the general asymptomatic population and the benefits of testing outweigh the chance of a false positive result. With general population testing, you would end up with far more false positives than true positives and consume health care resources monitoring healthy people

Steve Mouzon Brandon Neary what is a reasonable small percentage of false positives to assume?

Brandon Neary Steve Mouzon I haven’t seen the performance characteristics of the coronavirus tests (they probably haven’t been established yet) but I would not be surprised if I heard it was 5-10% of true negatives that give a positive result. Especially if the test is calibrated for maximum sensitivity. A test that was so rapidly developed could have an even higher rate

Steve Mouzon Brandon Neary 5-10% false positive isn’t really a small number, but let’s think through this. If someone tests positive but is asymptomatic, they certainly won’t be hospitalized. Most likely they’ll be asked to self-quarantine. But what, after handwashing, is considered one of the best practices? Staying home. Help me out with why that’s a bad thing.

Brandon Neary Steve Mouzon In my mind, the hand washing, awareness, and social distancing that is going on now will be more effective than mass testing, although we should almost certainly be more than what has recently been available. The reality is that it would not just be the person with the false positive test who self-quarantines though, most likely it would also be everyone who had interacted with that person in the days preceding the positive test as well.

Steve Mouzon Brandon Neary so you’d rather not know who the asymptomatic carriers are? When lives are at stake, I’d rather know. Here’s the flip side: for them and their close interactors, staying home on a false positive may prevent them from contracting the virus had they gone out.

Brandon Neary Steve Mouzon I think everyone would love to be able to identify all the cases, the diagnostic tests just aren’t capable of doing that. And I say that as someone who has spent 15 years in an R&D capacity developing in vitro diagnostics. The asymptomatic carriers would likely have a low viral load and give a false negative result as well. Definitely no easy answer to the whole situation unfortunately

Steve Mouzon Brandon Neary I’m certainly not a medical person, so you obviously know things I don’t. But if I’m reading so much about identifying Patient Zero & reconstructing webs of relationships & contacts, it seems like knowing who has it is probably an important thing. But time will tell.

Brandon Neary Steve Mouzon agreed, definitely room for all viewpoints and discussion. I love your work, by the way. I have a place out at Carlton Landing which is how I came to follow you

Steve Mouzon Brandon Neary oh, cool! What a fabulous place! Carlton Landing isn’t just excellent, it actually pioneered several important things.


Jennifer Hurley Steve, ideally we’d be testing anyone with symptoms and also proactively going into high risk places (like nursing homes and prisons) to test and then trace all contacts of anyone who’s positive, but since we don’t have enough testing capacity, they’re rationing. It’s a huge fail and a big part of why this has gotten so far out of control.

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Pandemic Post - Do-Gooders?

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<I’m including this one because it’s the beginning of trying to work out the essence of the several roles people are choosing to play in this pandemic. It evolved well beyond this by now (almost 2 weeks later) ~Steve>

   Who ever thought it would go down like this? Tonight, it seems like there are three main choices: be a say-gooder, a do-gooder, or an I-don’t-carer. The say-gooders say it’ll all be fine, and everything will recover shortly. The I-don’t-carers say “I got mine and will enjoy what I can while I can. The do-gooders say “what can I do to help?” I used to turn up my nose at their self- righteousness but might have become one. What are your top ten things to do now? You post your ten; I’ll post mine. Just as soon as I figure out what they are!

   ~Steve Mouzon

Jennifer Hurley Stay home as much as you can so you aren’t unwittingly spreading the virus and so you don’t get it and take up a hospital bed someone else will need.

Christal Deeter Hudson I’m a Be-gooder. Take precautions and “it Be good”

Janna Whitley I think of Wanda's description of where I now live, "At the end of the road with no place to go, and trees on both sides." I plan to stick close to the trees.

Kris Payne Boyle Wash hands. Take a deep breath to relax, make sure you have analgesics and cold medicine, cook and freeze single servings (in case the chief cook gets sick), stay out of public places, go outside for fresh air, use extreme measures to care for your older loved ones, cancel nonessential doctor appointments, make sure you can work from home. Turn off the media. Check it only a couple times a day (don't feed your anxiety) take care of mental health and help others do the same. This will pass, but it will take its toll. Be cheerful.

Susan Ratliff Ask what others need, take care of my own health, be patient and don’t overreact with anger.

Hazel Borys 1. Stay home: except walks; don't hoard
2. Stay balanced: read, contemplate, exercise, sleep, limit media
3. Care for family: cook, conversations, laughter, games, films
4. Work: proposals, deliverables, conference calls, video chats
5. Encourage: be positive; hope purifies; call friends
6. Listen: stay informed but not constantly; obey health minister
7. Learn: what can we each do be well and cool the planet?
8. Get ready to rebuild: parse summer time
9. Document: leave knowledge for next round of what helped
10. Be grateful: we aren’t in it alone, so remember to say thanks

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Pandemic Post - Healthy Buildings

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   <I need your help. I posted the following on Facebook a couple weeks ago and got a few good responses. Since then, several colleagues and I banded together to work out new protocols for healthy buildings knowing given what we’ve experienced recently with the coronavirus pandemic. I’m hoping for a flood of ideas in three stages: 1) what we can do now on the cheap, 2) what we can do soon, once there’s time and money for installing new things to make us safer, and 3) what we should do with new building designs. ~Steve>

Just by doorstopping doors open, how much of an office building can you make accessible without anyone having to touch a door handle? Yes, I know you can operate a handle with your elbow and push the door open with your butt, but that doesn't work if you're on the pull side of the door. #COVID19

   ~Steve Mouzon

Christal Deeter Hudson worse yet is it’s getting passed through the exchange of filthy germ ridden money!!!... there’s no controlling that!

Laurence Allenbaugh Since all I do is touch doorknobs exit devices all day long, door stops leave a building vulnerable security wise. However ADA compliant lever handles do make it so a armless or handless person can operate them or someone that can’t grasp a knob tightly enough. The other issue as you mentioned that is fine on the push side of the door but not the pull side unless you are a member of cirque du soliel! Since we don’t have gloved doorman anymore, automatic door openers using infrared motion detectors is one way or security guards monitoring doors from cameras can activate an electric door opener if one has the proper credentials of entry. But it is an issue not easily remedied but it keeps me in business.

Laurence Allenbaugh I was in a building the other day and they installed hand wipes at the elevators so I used that to touch the elevator button, most of the time in restrooms you can use the towel you dry your hands with to open the door. I guess install hand wipes at every internal door?

Kris Payne Boyle As an ops manager, doorsteps are good for internal doors but create a security risk on external doors. We have ada compliant doors, of course. To Lawrence's point, hand wipes near the doors is a good idea, but difficult to keep stocked. 

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Pandemic Post - Social Distancing

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   ‪Some object to the term “social distancing.” But what’s wrong with keeping a social distance? How often do you really want someone up in your face?‬ Keeping a social distance is social; violating someone else’s social distance is antisocial.

   ~Steve Mouzon

Fernando Pages And that’s a very Usonian statement. You’d feel violated every day in Argentina!

Steven Semes Yes, Steve, a very American reaction! Pity the poor Italians!

Ann Daigle Steven Pity the poor Americans!

Sally Beaton McIntosh True, but the recommendation for social distancing, in this instance, is 6 feet. You don't often stand 6 feet someone you are talking with.

Ann Daigle Sally especially if your sight is poor.

Susan Yvonne Curtis Aww you know I can’t do that being a pre k teacher

C Fenno Hoffman One person's distance is another's intimacy. 

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The Hidden Dimension (Anchor Books a Doubleday Anchor Book)

The Hidden Dimension (Anchor Books a Doubleday Anchor Book)

Ann Daigle C Fenno one of my favorite books from early days of social psych and ID.

Nils Eddy No problem when you're alone in a car.

Steve Mouzon Nils Eddy yeah, but cars already kill about 40,000 people per year directly & millions by side effects of Commuting Obesity!

Melissa Meyer Steve Mouzon, sounds like a pandemic to me.

Steve Mouzon Brilliant Melissa! The AutoVirus Pandemic! So virulent it affects almost every American in some way! And unlike most viruses, it shows no sign of containment, even after its first major outbreak 75 years ago. You should blog on this. Or if you don’t, I will, and credit you.

Melissa Meyer Steve Mouzon, Americans are addicted to the deadly automobile. Addiction is defined as a disease by the American Medical Association and the American Society of Addiction Medicine. I could go on and on! But unfortunately, I’m currently deep into a project right now and I shouldn’t even be on Facebook. You can blog about it and give me some creds. That would be an honor! I’d love to collaborate on other writing projects with you later.

Nancy Bruning Steve Mouzon and when you compound it with sit -itis you’re in even bigger trouble!

Nils Eddy Even most walkways are less width than the recommended social distance.

Christopher Liberatos

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Andy Di Michele we introverts are staying vigilant but... are slightly more at ease

Kris Payne Boyle A recently retired friend spent his day on the lake in a bass boat ..his definition of social distancing.

Steve Mouzon Kris Payne Boyle typical guy behavior! I am it well! ;-)

Elizabeth Dowdle 6 feet between humans is recommended. No hugs.

Ann Daigle I’ll bet most Southerners wouldn’t agree with you. A hug’s a greeting for everyone!

Elizabeth Dowdle Yes, as a southerner, it's a very hard habit to give up due to this social distancing requirement.

Ann Daigle Elizabeth I really feel... disconnected without human touch. It's a proven human need!

Elizabeth Dowdle Ann Daigle I know.

Steve Mouzon You both know a hug is my normal greeting! I’m just hoping we stay alive long enough to be hugging late into life! When something’s life-threatening, I try to figure out how to tell stories that keep life going on.

Christal Deeter Hudson don’t you know it!! we southerners need hugs like food and give hugs, like it or not, want one or not!


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Pandemic Post - Spread Without Symptoms

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spread without symptoms

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   Here’s a concern: many people are saying “I don’t have the coronavirus so I’m OK, even though I have a cold or the flu.” But I don’t think you’re OK. Here’s why: I’m no physician, but I can read. And what I’m reading is that the people who have other health conditions are far more susceptible than those who do not. So it seems to me that spreading even a cold is actually making people you’re spreading it to more at risk than if they were completely healthy. What am I missing?

   Now is therefore a time to do everything you can to be in the best health possible. Eat better stuff. Get lots of steps each day, but in a place that’s not so crowded. Even if you’ve never taken vitamins or other supplements before, do it now. Give yourself a better chance, and also give that better chance to the people you come in contact with.

   ~Steve Mouzon

Original Comments on Facebook:

Belle Ducray load up on elderberry syrup!

Ken Cousins https://qz.com/.../a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows.../

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This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works

This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works

Robert G. Scott I shouldn't be but I'm shocked at the level of self-absorbed people that occupies this sphere. We certainly have lost the concept of caring for our fellow human beings and acting for the greater good. I'm not panicking or living in fear but I do have elderly friends, parents and a MIL in a nursing home on lockdown that I'm very mindful of.

Victoria Lopez Thank you for supporting the vulnerable population that I fall into -- the cardiac patient who is also immunocompromised from an underlying neuro-metabolic disease.

Heather Bram Also, Coronavirus is a cold virus type. So if someone thinks they have a "common" cold, they could in fact be carrying Coronavirus and not know it if their symptoms are not severe. Many people who get it do not know it and therefore spreading it.

Steven Semes You are right to put the emphasis on protecting others. Must of us are not at risk or will recover, but we may infect those much more vulnerable. It's a moral imperative as much as a medical one.

Sally Beaton McIntosh The lily pad example of how Corona Virus spreads. Or why everything looks fine, until it doesn't. From an article from the Washington Post: 
You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lilypad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on.
Now the teaser. “If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?”
The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads are there.

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Steve Mouzon Yes, and that's a VERY big pond! If the lily pads average 1 square foot each, the pond would be bigger than the entire United States! The only pond that's bigger is the one about which Brits sometimes say "I live across the pond," meaning the North Atlantic Ocean. At over 5 million square miles, the lily pad pond would be about ⅛ the size of the North Atlantic Ocean. Shows the fearsome power of exponential growth.

Patti Dale Steve Mouzon to the guy with the frequent flying whom I love dearly, my best advice is to hydrate to the max before and during flight, carry a mask if you can still get one just in case u feel u need it on a given day

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Ann Ashworth One has a responsibility to take care of her own health so as not to place a burden on a system that is in all likelihood going to be overburdened. Two-thirds of us are going to contract this disease.

Nancy Bruning Better to overreact and be wrong, than to under react and be wrong.

Nancy Bruning What’s the worst thing that can happen if you improve your health, so you’re better able to resist infection, or at least deal better with the symptoms?

Steve Mouzon Nancy Bruning umm... IS there a worst thing?

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Nancy Bruning Steve Mouzon haha. Nope.

Jane Peeks All good advice Steve. Taking care of your body, your vehicle through life is what everyone should do. However, I'm an asthmatic - have been since I was born. When others around me are ill, even I they know it or not, I'm at an extreme risk. A common cold usually sends me straight into bronchitis and has progressed to pneumonia on several occasions - even while taking vitamins and supplements regularly. I fall directly into the highest risk category for this virus.

Steve Mouzon Wow, I never knew, Jane! And there are so many with other risk issues. Please be as safe as you can!

Jane Peeks Thank you. I'm as careful as I can be, but I will not succumb to fear. When it's my time, it's my time.

Steve Mouzon Jane be well!

Christal Deeter Hudson Jane Peeks ... I am in the same boat as you are! I’ve had a “common cold” going on 3 weeks now because my immune system is shot already due to pneumonia several times. I’m hydrating, detoxing with Essiac tea and lemon water, drinking elderberry syrup, grape juice, Ningxia Red from Young Living, taking my Usana vitamins and my supplements, even though I’m arthritic I’m trying to take short walks.. staying home... etc!
Everyone just be careful as best you know how.!!!

Kate Siegel Also, you may not *feel* sick, but you could still be infected and contagious.

Steve Mouzon Exactly!

Catherine Hartley Just because one isn’t showing signs of illness doesn’t mean he or she isn’t a carrier. One of the positive people here in Tampa Bay never got sick, but she got a co-worker sick. She had traveled from Italy, connected through Atlanta, and flew into tampa international. God knows how many people she infected. I read a story earlier today about an attorney in New York who infected 50 people (chains through family and friends). We should all be limiting our contact with folks by 6 or more feet.


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The Pandemic Posts

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   The heartbeat of a living tradition is sharing useful stuff with the reasons attached. With the coronavirus pandemic poised to be the most disruptive event in the 60 years I’ve been alive, there is nothing more important about which to share useful information than this pandemic. So for the duration, the Original Green blog will be dedicated to what we hope may be ideas people can use.

   I’ve been posting a lot of things on Facebook and Twitter since March 11, and will transfer those posts here in order of their posting, and complete with all comments, as they have been enormously helpful and I have learned much. And yeah, I’m leaving the funny parts as well because nothing but serious news in a pandemic lowers spirits at a bad time. By all means, please keep the comments coming, and let people know about these posts. I’m hoping this becomes a growing resource of useful stuff. Interestingly, watch how much smarter the discussions get as time goes by; in just 11 days, we seem to be learning stuff. Here’s the first post:


   Things are about to get very strange in the US with COVID-19. The uncertainty of not knowing how much supply chains will break down will now make for a lot of tension. There was a toilet paper riot in Australia today, for example. Could we each take a pledge to be unusually kind to our fellow humans? I'm in; how about you?

   ~Steve Mouzon

   Original Comments on Facebook:

Cynthia Clemons Peacock I’m officially nervous.

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Victoria Lee What’s the deal with toilet paper??? And does anyone know the incubation period? A bunch of us were exposed to international travelers this past weekend, as well as travelers from the 4 corners of the US. Nothing I can find about how long before one would show symptoms. The information forthcoming is dismal. Found some info but, not exactly confidence inspiring.

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Steve Mouzon Yeah, the uncertainty is unsettling, Victoria. I've seen reports of the virus living on inert surfaces for as short as 2 hours and as long as 9 days. The difference between the effects of each is staggering.

Mona Goddard They have been putting people into quarantine for 14 days from the time of last exposure. I would then surmise that the incubation is less than 14 days.
I hope that helps and moreso, I really hope you're going to be just fine Victoria.

John Morrison

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Geoffrey Mouen John Morrison that’s a new kind of supply chain.

Karen Reed https://hellotushy.com/products/classic-affordable-bidet...

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TUSHY: A Sleek Affordable Bidet Attachment | TUSHY Classic

TUSHY: A Sleek Affordable Bidet Attachment | TUSHY Classic

John Z Wetmore That is a big worry I have -- supply chains. How many industries rely on inputs from overseas? How many industries can continue to function if a handful of skilled employees aren't there to operate the machines? Or if truck stops close and parts can't be delivered? Or paperwork is not being done?

Steve Mouzon The supply chain thing is a real thing. How much stuff that we buy doesn't come from China, for example? And how long have how many of their plants been shut down? It can't help but become an issue before long. Actually, for things like disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer, good luck finding any right now.

Victoria Lee The average person in the U.S. uses about 100 rolls of toilet paper each year. If most of it came from China, this could be a huge problem because supply chains from that country have been severely disrupted as a result of COVID-19.
The U.S., however, imports very little toilet paper – less than 10% in 2017. And most of that comes from Canada and Mexico.

The U.S. has been mass producing toilet paper since the late 1800s. And while other industries like shoe manufacturing have fled the country, toilet paper manufacturing has not. Today there are almost 150 U.S. companies making this product.

Victoria Lee The new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes the respiratory illness COVID-19, has a median incubation period of 5.1 days, according to a study released late Monday led by researchers at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. While a shorter incubation period is better to slow the spread of the virus, this estimate also suggests it could be up to two weeks.

This estimated incubation period for COVID-19, is similar to that of SARS-CoV, an outbreak centered in southern China and Hong Kong from 2002–2004. MERS-CoV, a coronavirus that has caused hundreds of cases in the Middle East — with fatality rate of 35%, higher than the estimated rate of 2% to 3.4% for COVID-19 — has a mean incubation period of around 5 to 7 days.

Geoffrey Mouen I’m in too. But I am cancelling all travel plans until further notice. I don’t need to travel or shake hands to be kind to everyone.

Steve Mouzon Very true on both, Geoffrey!

Bruce Stephenson Geoffrey Mouen Was determined to fly to Portland next week, realize the risk is not a calculation but simple logic. On New Testament behavior

Christal Deeter Hudson Geoffrey Mouen ... I cancelled 3 flights on Southwest to CA in July... No refund, only a credit to fly later. I’ve written Congressman Jim Cooper to see if they can get these airlines to refund cancelled travel due to this craziness.

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Eileen Roberts Yes for me!!!

Mona Goddard This is one of the moments that I am glad I live in a farming community. There is still toilet paper, Lysol spray, and disinfecting wipes on the shelves. I did come across an article today, very well presented data, that I think has some important information contained within it. I'm not a fan of inflammatory language or scare tactics.

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Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Steve Mouzon Mona, this is by far the most rational and useful information I've seen yet, and I've been following this since the deaths in China were in the teens... late December or early January, if I recall correctly. Everyone should take the time to go through this piece thoroughly. It might save your life, or lives of those you love in your community.

Jane Peeks I'm with you Steve, I'm in.

Laura Clemons Understanding our vulnerability is healthy. This will be good for adjusting to a more resilient way of living.

G.b. Arrington All kinds of shortages in our local Barcelona supermercat- tp, milk, eggs, yogurt gone or very limited

Jaime Izurieta-Varea We’ll have to start relying on local supply chains for much of our daily lives. Kind of like the system rebooting its loss of scale and it is a sad, frightening process. Stay safe, Steve and thanks for these little reminders of the kindness that should flourish now.

Dian Ratcliff Yes!

Lloyd Alter https://www.treehugger.com/.../why-i-spent-1200-toilet...

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Why I spent $1200 on a toilet seat and why you should too

Why I spent $1200 on a toilet seat and why you should too

Mary Elizabeth Yes

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Deb Schultz I'm in

Active Now

Steve Gates Yep.

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Shelia Gilbraith Got TP in the mail today!😃oh wait it was a magazine


Susan Ratliff I’m in…

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Les Mouzon Welcome to the pretext of socialism.

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Steve Mouzon I'd so love it if basic human decency didn't have a political slant. Neighbors helping neighbors was once the American Way. But then everything got politicized and it all went downhill from there. Maybe we can bring a good idea back from the clutches of politics. Maybe? We can hope. I just really loathe politics, because it corrupts everything. I say that equally to my right-leaning and left-leaning friends.

Catherine Hartley Lots of folks from around the country have posted pics of empty shelves. I wasn’t even going to try and shop today. I got a giant NY strip and fingerling potatoes at the fresh market the other day, ate half for dinner tonight and I’ll cook the other half tomorrow. Got a large package of chicken on sale and some broccoli slaw, too. I’ve had plenty of toilet paper stocked up from having instacart delivery while I was sick... not only was it on sale, instacart offers additional coupons if you shop certain brands. I’m good for two weeks at least.

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Wendie Bishop I’m there too

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